Matthew Berry’s Love/Hate post 2025 NFL Draft – NBC Sports
2025-05-01T15:26:15Z
Baker Mayfield, Ashton Jeanty, and DJ Moore headline Matthew Berry’s Love/Hate players in the aftermath of the 2025 NFL Draft based on their current fantasy value.
So, as I write this I am in Louisville, Kentucky. It’s the 151st Kentucky Derby this Saturday and we are doing Fantasy Football Happy Hour from Churchill Downs, which you can watch at your leisure on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel or listen to it where ever you get your podcasts.
I mention that because I’m not writing an opening story this week. If I did, it would be less time for Mint Juleps, now, wouldn’t it? I’m working smarter here, not harder.
If you’re interested in my dynasty rookie rankings for Superflex and 1QB leagues, you can find them here.
And gotta give a shout out to my friends at FantasyLife.com, especially Dwain McFarland whose Rookie Super Models for all the positions are always must see.
So, let’s get right to it. This is a “post draft” Love/Hate where the premise is slightly different than usual. This is all about how the NFL draft went for respective players. Players who saw their fantasy stock rise as a result of the NFL draft are “Loves” and players who saw their fantasy stock fall after the NFL draft make the Hate List.
Got it? Good. If you have a horse you like for either The Oaks (on Friday) or the Kentucky Derby (Saturday), holler at me on social media where I am @MatthewBerryTMR on every platform except the Bleacher Nation Fantasy App where I am merely @MatthewBerry.
Thanks as always to my producer Damian Dabrowski for his help at various points in this column.
Here we go:
Quarterbacks I Love Post Draft
Caleb Williams, Chicago
The Bears used the 2025 NFL Draft to continue to build around their 2024 No. 1 overall pick, taking two offensive tackles, an explosive slot receiver in Luther Burden III and a playmaking tight end in Colston Loveland. All of that is more than enough to put Caleb Williams into … wait for it … Love land. (Hey, it’s the offseason. You get offseason-quality jokes.) Don’t forget: Chicago also added three other offensive linemen before the draft in Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, and Drew Dalman. Add to that the arrival of new head coach Ben Johnson, and Williams has everything he needs to make the leap in 2025.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay
Four years ago, Baker Mayfield was playing quarterback for one of the worst organizations in pro sports while living in the Browns stadium (assuming those Progressive commercials were true). Now? He’s got arguably the best receiving corps in football, while the Browns have more quarterbacks than seats in their stadium. Wild times. Granted, being drafted by Tampa isn’t great for Emeka Egbuka’s immediate fantasy prospects due to all the other mouths to feed in that offense. But it’s hard to think of how things could be better for Mayfield. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin … and now Egbuka and Jalen McMillan as his WR3 and WR4? And an emerging Cade Otton at TE? And he’s moved out of the Browns stadium into an actual house? These days, it’s good to be Baker Mayfield.
Others receiving votes: The New York Jets used three of their first four picks on offense (OT, TE, WR), yet spent nary a pick on a quarterback over all three days of the draft. It’s the Justin Fields show in 2025. … From Justin Fields to Justin Herbert. The Chargers added three pass catchers in the draft in Tre Harris, KeAndre Lambert-Smith, and Oronde Gadsen II, completing the remake of the LAC pass-catching group that was essentially an empty room heading into last year’s draft. Harris and Lambert-Smith also bring an additional vertical element to the passing game, which is a great fit for Justin Herbert, who was already top 10 in aDOT last season. Maybe 2025 will be the year of Justins. (Love you, Biebs.) … Despite having little to work with last season, Drake Maye still put up 17-plus fantasy points in six of his nine completed games. Some help has now arrived. The Patriots used their first four picks on offense, taking two linemen, along with running back TreVeyon Henderson and wide receiver Kyle Williams. … It’s a similar story for Bryce Young in Carolina. From Weeks 8-18 last season, he was QB14 in PPG (18.1) and posted three games with 23-plus fantasy points over that span. Now, he’s got an exciting new weapon in wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, who the Panthers took No. 8 overall. Carolina also added WR Jimmy Horn, Jr. and TE Mitchell Evans on Day 3. … Houston is yet another team that wisely used early picks to provide weapons for their young quarterback. The Texans drafted two wide receivers and an offensive tackle with their first three picks and then added a pass-catching back in Round 4. Last year may have been a sophomore slump for C.J. Stroud, but this year could be a junior … jackpot? A junior jamboree? A junior jetpack-ride-to-the-moon? I don’t know, okay? Something good that starts with a “J.” I’ll keep workshopping it over the summer. … Considering Derek Carr’s apparent injury, Spencer Rattler’s late-season ineffectiveness and the draft capital (40th overall, third QB selected) that the Saints spent on Tyler Shough, there’s plenty of reasons to think the rookie could be New Orleans’ Week 1 starter. Heck, I may just say “Fhough it” and draft him in a lot of dynasty leagues.
Quarterbacks I Hate Post Draft
Dak Prescott, Dallas
Well, I guess you can’t doubt the Cowboys’ faith in Dak Prescott, because they gave him essentially nothing to work with in the draft. Thanks to not selecting ANY wide receivers, Dak’s WR depth chart after CeeDee Lamb remains Jalen Tolbert and KaVontae Turpin. I mean, it’s hard to call that depth. That’s the WR equivalent of a pool sign that says, “no diving.” It’s really no surprise that since 2021, Dallas hasn’t had a single receiver other than Lamb reach 700 receiving yards. Looks like they want to keep that streak going in 2025.
Shedeur Sanders, Cleveland
At the risk of Mel Kiper, Jr. yelling at me, I’m putting Shedeur Sanders on the Hate List. But it’s not because of the potential reasons for his drop in the draft that I’ve written about before. And it’s not because of his talent or athleticism, no matter how much or little he may have. It’s because Sanders has to beat out Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, and a guy the Browns obviously like a lot more on tape (due to them picking him 50 spots earlier) in Dillon Gabriel. I don’t think there is any way the Browns keep four QBs, so one of these guys isn’t making the team. Maybe that guy is Sanders. And even if Sanders makes the team and does immediately show he’s the best quarterback of the group, what’s his reward? It’s taking the controls of one of the worst offenses in football. Last season, Cleveland ranked 28th in QB fantasy points. Maybe Sanders emerges as the Browns QB1 at some point in the future, but it’s unlikely he sees the field much early in his career.
Running Backs I Love Post Draft
Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas
It would be hard not to be excited about Ashton Jeanty’s fantasy prospects no matter where he landed in the draft. But he just so happened to be drafted into an ideal situation. Let’s start with new Raiders offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. In his four seasons as an NFL head coach, Kelly’s teams ranked top seven in rush attempts three times. During Kelly’s three-year Eagles tenure, Philadelphia’s backfields ranked fourth in fantasy PPG (27.7). That includes the 2013 season when LeSean McCoy led the NFL in carries (314) and rushing yards (1,607). Jeanty has the perfect coordinator in Chip Kelly. He also has the ideal draft capital, going No. 6 overall. Get this: Since 2012, five of the seven RBs drafted inside the top 10 averaged at least 19 touches per game as rookies. And all five of those seven finished as top seven backs in PPG. So, yeah, Jeanty has a lot going for him. But one thing he doesn’t have? Any semblance of competition for touches. Raheem Mostert, Sincere McCormick, and Zamir White are the backs behind him on the Raiders depth chart. It will be Jeanty’s show right out of the gate as a rookie. I have him as a top five fantasy back and a first-round pick.
Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers
I promise you that Omarion Hampton is not on the Love List just because he may be the largest human who has ever lived. (See: photo evidence.) Okay, sure that’s part of the reason. But I also like him being drafted into a Chargers offense that ranked top 12 in both RB carries and RB rushing touchdowns last season and was 10th overall in rush rate. Yes, the Chargers signed Najee Harris in the offseason. But a) it was to a one-year deal, while Los Angeles used the 22nd overall pick on Hampton; and b) it’s Najee Harris. Harris will do … fine. But all RB roads point to Hampton putting the bulk of the LAC ground game on his (extremely enormous) shoulders as the season progresses.
Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland
Look for Quinshon Judkins to fill the Nick Chubb role on early downs in the Cleveland offense. The Browns surely didn’t spend the 36th overall pick in the draft to have Judkins watch Jerome Ford play football. Or for him to watch any of their QB’s pass. Don’t forget, Chubb averaged at least 17 touches per game in all four of his full seasons as a starter. Chubb also finished as a top 12 RB in PPG in all four of those seasons. Coach Kevin Stefanski loves (needs?) a strong run game, so even with some of the workload still going to Ford (or fellow rookie Dylan Sampson) this season, Judkins should get plenty of work and be a solid RB2 as a rookie.
RJ Harvey, Denver
Heading into the 2025 NFL Draft, Sean Payton had taken only three RBs before Day 3 in his career as a head coach: Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram, and Alvin Kamara. RJ Harvey makes four. Not a bad group to be in. Another good group to be in? Sean Payton’s run offense. Since taking over as head coach in 2023, Payton’s Denver offense ranks top 10 in RB fantasy points (22.3 PPG). With only Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime, and Tyler Badie on the RB depth chart with him, Harvey figures to get the bulk of the work. I have him in that low-end RB2 range with Judkins.
Kaleb Johnson, Pittsburgh
Kaleb Johnson is a great schematic fit for Arthur Smith’s zone-running game. And to avoid getting too far into the X’s and O’s, let’s just simplify Smith’s run game approach by saying this: He likes to do it. A lot. Smith’s offenses have ranked top three in rush attempts in four of his last five seasons as a head coach or offensive coordinator. His teams have also totaled 500-plus RB touches in each of the past three seasons. So, with Najee Harris vacating 299 touches, and Pittsburgh using the 83rd overall pick on the bruising Iowa product, Johnson figures to slot right into that workload. Yes, Jaylen Warren will still factor into the run game, but the Steelers clearly see him as more of a change-of-pace back. Pittsburgh has only let Warren get 15-plus touches in a game just eight times in his three-year career. Johnson looks to be in the RB20-26 range as a rookie.
Others receiving votes: Over the final eight games of the 2024 season, Chase Brown averaged 20.6 PPG (RB4 over that span) and saw 23.6 touches per game. Cincinnati clearly liked what it saw, because the only RB the Bengals drafted was sixth-rounder Tahj Brooks. … One round after the Bengals took Brooks, the Commanders selected their only back of the draft in the seventh round. That’s a huge vote of confidence for Brian Robinson, who averaged 13.9 PPG last season when seeing 15-plus touches. … It seems the Chiefs are still all-in on Isiah Pacheco. While Kareem Hunt is still around, he’s pushing 30. And in the draft, the Chiefs essentially ignored the RB position, only taking Brashard Smith in the seventh round. … The Cowboys took Jaydon Blue in the fifth round and Phil Mafah in the seventh. You’ll obviously want to monitor the Cowboys’ RB workload in the preseason, but considering the lack of draft capital spent on the position, Javonte Williams is still the clear favorite for the RB1 job in Dallas. … The only football player as synonymous with insurance as Peyton Manning might be Christian McCaffrey. Because if you have McCaffrey, you definitely need insurance. And the best McCaffrey insurance in 2025 may just be rookie Jordan James. He offers more reliability than Isaac Guerendo, who is better suited to work more as a change-of-pace back. … Another rookie dart throw I like? Devin Neal. With only Kendre Miller and Clyde Edwards-Helaire in his way, he has a path to the RB2 job in New Orleans behind Alvin Kamara. … And let’s go with one more, and the longest dart throw of all, in Kyle Monangai. Yes, D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson are the clear front-runners in Chicago, but Monangai could eventually project into that David Montgomery role in Ben Johnson’s offense. Remember, during Ben Johnson’s three seasons as offensive coordinator in Detroit, the Lions led the NFL in RB fantasy points.
Running Backs I Hate Post Draft
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England
Last season, Rhamondre Stevenson was 40th among qualified running backs in fantasy points per touch and, in games in which he saw fewer than 15 touches, he averaged just 5.0 PPG. Not good. That’s as volume dependent as you can get. Maybe Stevenson’s nickname should be “death metal” because that kind of music and his game both only work with a ton of volume. Unfortunately for Stevenson managers, his volume is going to be turned way down this year with the arrival of TreVeyon Henderson. The rookie will presumably take over the receiving role, and 34% of Stevenson’s fantasy points last year came from receiving. Add in a portion of the carries that will go Henderson’s way, and Stevenson’s fantasy value in 2025 will be barely audible.
Najee Harris, Los Angeles Chargers
I tend to stick to fantasy advice in this column, but if I may briefly offer some real estate advice, it’s this: Maybe Najee Harris should rent in Los Angeles instead of buying? Harris’ one-year deal and the draft capital the Chargers spent on Omarion Hampton means L.A. won’t force Harris touches if – and when – Hampton outperforms him. Harris is also coming off a season in which he had a career low in fantasy points per touch. In fact, over the past two seasons, in games in which he sees between 10 and 15 touches, Harris is averaging just 8.0 PPG. Like Stevenson, he needs volume to be effective in fantasy. Also, like Stevenson, he’s probably not going to get it.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh has given Jaylen Warren fewer than 15 touches in 83% of his career games, and he averaged just 10.5 touches per game in 2024. Last season, he also had less than 20% of Pittsburgh’s red zone rushes, and only 12% of their goal-line rushes. Could Warren handle a bigger workload? Possibly. Is Pittsburgh going to give it to him? Almost definitely not. Kaleb Johnson is slated to be the new Najee Harris in Pittsburgh, while Warren is slated to be … the same Jaylen Warren. He’s got his role, and it doesn’t look like Pittsburgh is going to increase it.
Tyrone Tracy, New York Giants
Cam Skattebo’s skill set should see him get a lot of work in the passing game and in goal-to-go situations, both of which will cut heavily into Tyrone Tracy’s workload. Last season, in games in which Tracy got fewer than 19 touches, he only put up 12-plus fantasy points twice. And while Tracy and Skattebo will get the bulk of the work, don’t forget that Devin Singletary is still hanging around and the Giants can’t easily get out of Singletary’s contract until after the season.
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville
Where to start with the bad news for Travis Etienne? Let’s go chronologically and start with last year when Tank Bigsby significantly outperformed Etienne as a rusher. Now, let’s fast-forward to the 2025 draft, when the Jaguars spent two picks on running backs in fourth-rounder Bhayshul Tuten and seventh-rounder LeQuint Allen. Tuten is a very good receiving back who, if he makes the team, could seriously threaten Etienne’s target share. And now let’s jump ahead to 2026, which is when Etienne is no longer under contract with the Jaguars. It doesn’t seem by any measure that Etienne is factoring into Jacksonville’s plans moving forward. So much so that Etienne’s best shot at returning to fantasy relevance is to be traded to an RB-needy team. That’s something to monitor as the season nears. But until then, Etienne is entrenched on the Hate List.
Pass Catchers I Love Post Draft
Travis Hunter, Jacksonville
Going at No. 2 to Jacksonville instead of No. 2 to Cleveland was the best possible outcome for Travis Hunter. Trevor Lawrence is better than Cleveland’s Frankenquaterback, and Brian Thomas, Jr. is the only other player on Jacksonville’s roster who saw more than 53 targets last season. So, there are targets to be had. I like Hunter in Liam Cohen’s offense, too. Last season, the Bucs ranked third in WR fantasy points, and that was with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin missing a combined 13 games. Tampa Bay also led the league in wide receiver yards on screens, and Hunter had a lot of production on screens in college. Maybe best of all? Travis Hunter will never have to play against elite NFL cornerback Travis Hunter. I have him as a low-end WR2 as a rookie in 2025.
Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina
Last season the Panthers ranked top eight in wide receiver target share and WR red zone targets. Now, they have a 6-foot-4 receiver who can jump and boasts a massive catch radius. I like that upside. I also like Tetairoa McMillan’s draft capital as the No. 8 overall pick. Get this: The last eight WRs to be drafted inside the top 10 all saw 100-plus targets as rookies. I’m putting McMillan right there with Hunter in 2025 in that WR18-24 range.
Calvin Ridley, Tennessee
Calvin Ridley will be aided significantly by catching passes from Cam Ward. I mean, just think how nice it will be for him to not have to try to catch footballs covered in mayonnaise anymore. But my analysis extends beyond egg-based condiments. Similar to how Ridley extends defenses. In 2024, Ridley led all NFL wide receivers with 60 deep targets and his 15.7 aDOT ranked second at the position. Now, he is paired with Ward, who had the fourth-most completions in college last season on passes of 20-plus air yards. And while Ridley is 30, the Titans don’t seem to care much. They signed Tyler Lockett, who is two years older, and then didn’t draft a receiver until the fourth round. Without a ton of competition for targets, Ridley will produce. Last season, in games in which he had a target share of at least 20%, he averaged 13.8 PPG.
Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland
The wide receiver depth chart in Cleveland behind Jerry Jeudy is Cedric Tillman, Diontae Johnson, Michael Woods, and Jamari Thrash. Maybe the Browns will use their QB surplus to bolster their WR depth chart. I know I’d love to see Joe Flacco running fly patterns. I guess we’ll have to wait and see. But anyway, there’s a reason Jeudy got 145 targets last season – seventh among WRs – and why he might get even more this season. By the way, in Jeudy’s games last season in which he had six or more targets? He averaged 16.4 PPG.
Colston Loveland, Chicago
During Ben Johnson’s tenure as Detroit’s offensive coordinator from 2022-2024, the Lions ranked eighth in TE fantasy points. Over that same span, Lions tight ends combined for 32 receiving touchdowns, tied for second most in the NFL. So, when Johnson said that he sees a lot of similarities between Sam LaPorta and Colston Loveland? Oh, baby. I’m all in. (I’m also all out on Cole Kmet, whose contract has an out following the 2025 season.)
Others receiving votes: The Raiders likely found their No. 2 WR with the 58th overall pick in Jack Bech. Last season, Tre Tucker ranked top 10 in routes run. Bech should take on that role in the offense. And not for nothing, but as a freshman in 2021 on an LSU team that included Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas, Jr., and Kayshon Boutte, Bech led the Tigers in receptions. … Quentin Johnston ranked bottom 10 in catch rate among wide receivers with 90-plus targets last year. So, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Tre Harris could supplant Johnson very quickly as the Chargers’ WR2. I also happen to love his skill set as a new deep ball threat for Justin Herbert. … Demario Douglas is the only Patriots returning WR to have seen 70-plus targets last season. And while Stefon Diggs is now on the Patriots, he’s coming off of a torn ACL. So, that means the depth chart is wide open for Kyle Williams to make some noise in New England. Williams’ speed provides a much-needed element to the Patriots’ offense. … The Cowboys didn’t select any WRs in the draft. That’s bad news for Dak Prescott, but good for Jalen Tolbert. He’s the only wide receiver on the roster, other than CeeDee Lamb, who saw more than 55 targets last season. … Courtland Sutton is 30 and entering the final year of his deal, while Marvin Mims, Jr. and Devaughn Vele are not volume receivers. That leaves a path to fantasy production in Denver for third-round pick Pat Bryant. … You have to feel positive about any young, talented receiver that lands with the Chiefs. Even a middle-aged, talent-challenged receiver could put up numbers with Patrick Mahomes. (Which is what I keep telling their GM, but he won’t return my calls anymore.) Anyway, Jalen Royals has even more upside considering Rashee Rice is coming off injury, Hollywood Brown is on a one-year deal, and they likely will wat to limit Travis Kelce’s snaps during the regular season.… After Garrett Wilson, the WR depth chart on the Jets is Allen Lazard and Josh Reynolds. So don’t be surprised if Mason Taylor, the third TE selected in the draft, immediately becomes the No. 2 target in the Jets’ offense. … The Rams used their first pick of the draft, and the 46th pick overall, on tight end Terrance Ferguson. With Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson on expiring deals, Ferguson is clearly the TE of the future with the Rams. … Cleveland ranked top 10 in slot targets last season and were led in that category by Elijah Moore. Well, he just signed with the Bills, making Harold Fannin, Jr. most likely to fill that role.
Pass Catchers I Hate Post Draft
DJ Moore, Chicago
The additions of Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III mean consistent targets could be difficult to come by. DJ Moore is coming off career lows in yards per target and yards per route run. Even worse for Moore? Burden is essentially more … Moore. Their skill sets overlap. Last season, more than 60% of Moore’s receiving yards came after the catch and he led the NFL in screen targets. That essentially was Burden’s game at Missouri and the second-round pick Chicago used on Burden means Ben Johnson already likes him. We don’t know yet how he feels about Moore.
Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay
Tampa taking Emeka Ebuka is one of those football moves that is great for real football, but mostly bad for fantasy football. Yes, it’s great for Baker Mayfield’s fantasy prospects, as stated above. But bad for everyone else. The Ebuka pick can only make you wonder if Godwin’s return from injury has slowed. At the very least, the Bucs will now feel no pressure to rush him back from injury. As for Jalen McMillan? He might be the best WR4 in football. But that makes a player close to unusable in fantasy. We already saw how receiver depth hurt McMillan last season. Remember that in the five games McMillan played with Godwin active, he averaged a paltry 4.1 PPG and had a 9% target share with a route participation rate of just 63%. And now Ebuka is in the mix, too? Not ideal.
Jayden Reed, Green Bay
Matthew Golden is the first WR drafted by the Packers in the first round since 2002. To put that into perspective, 2002 is so long ago that Matthew Golden wasn’t even alive then. Which, if you think about it, is probably why the Packers didn’t take him then. Anyway, my point is that the Packers clearly like Golden. So much so that he profiles to be their WR1, while Jayden Reed will have to compete for targets with the rest of Green Bay’s pass catchers. And even forgetting Golden’s arrival, the Packers clearly don’t see Reed as a full-time player. Last year, he had a 63% snap rate and – over the final 11 games of the season – he had a target share of just 14% and averaged 8.3 PPG (WR61 over that span). I can also see third-round pick Savion Williams, an RB/WR hybrid, getting some of Reed’s manufactured touches.
Tank Dell, Houston
Due to a devastating knee injury in which most any and everything in a human knee was damaged, Tank Dell was already on track to miss the bulk of the 2025 season. So, it would be no surprise if the Texans sought fill-ins. But it seems more like they went out and got permanent replacements in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. If, and hopefully when, Dell returns to action, he will return to what will be a greatly reduced role in the Houston offense.
Tyler Warren, Indianapolis
The do-everything Penn State tight end was drafted into an offense that will make it a challenge to do much of anything. The Colts are a run-first team that ranked 27th in pass attempts last season. And while Warren can contribute on the ground, he’s in an offense that obviously likes to feed Jonathan Taylor first and will include a quarterback – no matter if it’s Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones – who can grab a share of carries, as well. There is also a lot of competition in Indianapolis for the limited targets the passing game provides. Last season, the Colts had two wide receivers with 100-plus targets and four with 55-plus. And it will be even worse for Warren if Richardson gets the job due to Richardson’s accuracy issues. Last season, Richardson ranked last among qualified QBs in completion percentage, off-target rate, and passer rating. I love Warren in fantasy long term, but it’s hard to see him popping until the Colts upgrade their QB room.
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