India and Pakistan again teeter on the brink of conflict over Kashmir. Here’s why – AP News
2025-04-25T03:37:00Z
A deadly attack on tourists in Indian-controlled Kashmir has again moved India and Pakistan closer to war. The rivals have downgraded their diplomatic and trade ties, closed their main border crossing and revoked visas for each other’s nationals. Pakistan den…
NEW DELHI (AP) — A deadly attack on tourists in Indian-controlled Kashmir has again moved India and Pakistan closer to war as the two rivals downgraded diplomatic and trade ties, closed the main border crossing and revoked visas for each other’s nationals.
Pakistan has denied it was behind Tuesday’s attack that killed 26 mostly Indian tourists at a scenic spot in the Himalayan region, where India claimed it restored a sense of calm despite a decadeslong rebellion. A previously unknown militant group calling itself Kashmir Resistance has claimed responsibility for the attack.
India and Pakistan have fought two of their three wars over Kashmir, which is split between them and claimed by both in its entirety. Here’s what to know about an escalation in tensions between the two nuclear-armed rivals.
Supporters of the Pakistan Murkazi Muslim League party chants slogans during a demonstration against the suspension of water-sharing treaty by India with Pakistan, in Karachi, Pakistan Thursday, April 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Fareed Khan) Supporters of the Pakistan Murkazi Muslim League party chants slogans during a demonstration against the suspension of water-sharing treaty by India with Pakistan, in Karachi, Pakistan Thursday, April 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Fareed Khan) Share Share Facebook
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What’s at the heart of the dispute?
Ties between India and Pakistan have been shaped by conflict, aggressive diplomacy and mutual suspicion, most notably in their competing claims over the stunning Himalayan region of Kashmir.
Armed insurgents in Kashmir have resisted New Delhi for decades, with many Muslim Kashmiris supporting the rebels’ goal of uniting the territory either under Pakistani rule or as an independent country. India accuses Pakistan of fomenting violence, a charge denied by Islamabad. Tens of thousands of civilians, rebels and government forces have been killed in the conflict over the years.
How has Pakistan responded to India’s reprisals?
On Tuesday, gunmen fatally shot 26 people, mostly Indian tourists, in an attack near the picturesque town of Pahalgam. New Delhi immediately linked Pakistan to the attack, although it did not publicly produce any evidence.
India announced a string of punitive measures. It downgraded diplomatic ties, suspended a crucial water-sharing treaty and revoked all visas issued to Pakistani nationals. India also said it will reduce its staff in its high commission in Pakistan and bring down the number of Pakistani diplomats in New Delhi to 30 from 55 from May 1.
Pakistan called India’s actions “irresponsible” and canceled visas for Indian nationals, suspended all trade with India including via third countries and closed its airspace to Indian aircraft.
Supporters of the Pakistan Murkazi Muslim League party chants slogans during a demonstration against the suspension of water-sharing treaty by India with Pakistan, in Karachi, Pakistan Thursday, April 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Fareed Khan) Supporters of the Pakistan Murkazi Muslim League party chants slogans during a demonstration against the suspension of water-sharing treaty by India with Pakistan, in Karachi, Pakistan Thursday, April 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Fareed Khan) Share Share Facebook
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Islamabad warns dispute over water could lead to war
India’s decision to suspend the water treaty could potentially mark a major turning point in how the two neighbors manage an essential shared resource between them. Pakistan warned Thursday that any Indian attempt to stop or divert the flow of water between them would be considered an “act of war.”
The Indus Water Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, allows for sharing the waters of a river system that is a lifeline for both countries. The treaty has survived two wars between the countries, in 1965 and 1971, and a major border skirmish in 1999.
It governs sharing of the water supply from the Indus River system and its distributaries. Under the treaty, India has control over the eastern rivers of Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas, and Pakistan controls the western rivers of Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus that follow through Kashmir region.
Pakistan said the treaty was binding and contained no provision for unilateral suspension.
Pakistan described it as a “vital national interest.” The treaty is essential for supporting agriculture and hydropower in the country with 240 million people. Suspending it could lead to water shortages at a time when parts of Pakistan are already struggling with drought and declining rainfall.
Pakistan warns it could suspend a peace treaty
A supporter of the Pakistan Murkazi Muslim League party holds a crossed poster of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with the words ‘Modi butcher” during a demonstration against the suspension of water-sharing treaty by India with Pakistan, in Karachi, Pakistan Thursday, April 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Fareed Khan) A supporter of the Pakistan Murkazi Muslim League party holds a crossed poster of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with the words ‘Modi butcher” during a demonstration against the suspension of water-sharing treaty by India with Pakistan, in Karachi, Pakistan Thursday, April 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Fareed Khan) Share Share Facebook
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Islamabad, meanwhile, has warned it could suspend the Simla Agreement, a significant peace treaty signed after the 1971 India-Pakistan war that ended in Bangladesh splitting from Pakistan.
Under the agreement, India and Pakistan established the Line of Control, previously called the Ceasefire Line, a highly militarized de facto border that divides disputed Kashmir between the countries. They also committed to settle their differences through bilateral negotiations.
Militant attacks scale back peace efforts
Despite largely strained relations, the neighbors have intermittently made efforts for peace. However, regular border flare-ups and multiple militant attacks in Kashmir and India have marred peace overtures as New Delhi has taken tough position on Islamabad, accusing it of “terrorism.”
In 1999, Pakistan-backed rebels and Pakistani soldiers seized Indian military posts in the icy heights of Kargil region. Indian troops responded and a 10-week conflict killed at least 1,000 combatants on both sides. The fighting stopped after a U.S. intervention.
In 2008, a group of heavily armed assailants of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba militant group went on a rampage in India’s financial capital Mumbai, killing 166 people. New Delhi blamed Pakistan’s intelligence service for the assault, an accusation denied by Islamabad.
In 2019, a suicide car bombing killed 40 Indian soldiers in Kashmir and brought the countries closer to war. In response, India said its air force struck a militant training camp inside Pakistan. Pakistan responded by aerial raids, downed an Indian military aircraft and captured an Indian pilot, who was later released.
Months later, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government revoked Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status and imposed sweeping security measures. Since then, India has kept order in the region with a huge security presence and drastically curbed dissent, civil liberties and media freedoms.
Worries of nuclear confrontation
India and Pakistan have built up their armies and nuclear arsenals over the years. India was the first to conduct a nuclear test in 1974, followed by another in 1998. Pakistan followed with its own nuclear tests just a few weeks later. The sides have since armed themselves with hundreds of nuclear warheads, missile delivery systems, advanced fighter jets and modern weapons to take on each other.
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