Global supervolcano threat rises as scientists sound the alarm – The Brighter Side of News
2025-04-20T11:51:00Z
Supervolcanoes are in a class of their own. Unlike typical eruptions, these blasts eject more than 1,000 cubic kilometers of material.
Volcanoes have stirred human awe for thousands of years, with their bursts of fire and rivers of molten rock. Yet, beyond the familiar cone-shaped peaks lies a more silent, hidden danger—supervolcanoes. These colossal forces don’t rumble often, but when they do, the aftermath can reach across continents. Studying these sleeping giants offers not just fascinating science but also sobering warnings for the planet’s future.
Supervolcanoes are in a class of their own. Unlike typical eruptions, these blasts eject more than 1,000 cubic kilometers of material. That’s enough to bury entire cities under layers of ash. They don’t look like the volcanoes you might picture either. Instead of peaks, they often form as massive calderas—huge sunken areas created when the magma chamber empties and collapses.
Their eruptions sit at the top of the Volcanic Explosivity Index, labeled VEI-8. That’s the highest score possible. To compare, the famous eruption that buried Pompeii was a VEI-5—far less powerful. A single VEI-8 event would not just devastate the surrounding region. It could alter weather patterns, block sunlight, and disrupt global agriculture.
Supervolcanoes act on long, quiet timelines, making them hard to predict. Their sheer potential, however, keeps scientists watchful. These rare eruptions could shift climate, rewrite coastlines, and shake global systems. Understanding their patterns is key to preparing for the unimaginable.
Diagram showing size comparison of selected historic and prehistoric volcanic eruptions. (CREDIT: USGS)
Where Are Supervolcanoes Found?
Supervolcanoes exist on every continent, though some are better known than others. Among the most notable are:
Yellowstone Caldera (United States)
Size : 70 kilometers by 55 kilometers (caldera size)
: 70 kilometers by 55 kilometers (caldera size) Potential Damage and Power : The Lava Creek eruption 640,000 years ago ejected over 1,000 cubic kilometers of material, covering much of North America with volcanic ash. An eruption today would likely devastate the western U.S. with ashfall, disrupt air travel worldwide, and cause a volcanic winter, reducing global temperatures by several degrees Celsius.
Likelihood to Erupt: Low in the short term. USGS estimates the annual probability of a Yellowstone eruption at approximately 1 in 730,000. Continuous monitoring shows no signs of an imminent eruption.
The Yellowstone Caldera is an infamous “supervolcano” having produced three “supereruptions”. (CREDIT: iStock)
Toba Caldera (Indonesia)
Size : 100 kilometers by 30 kilometers
: 100 kilometers by 30 kilometers Potential Damage and Power : The Toba eruption 74,000 years ago was one of the most massive in Earth’s history, releasing about 2,800 cubic kilometers of material. This event caused a “volcanic winter,” dropping global temperatures by up to 5°C and possibly triggering a human population bottleneck. The ashfall and climate effects disrupted ecosystems for decades.
Likelihood to Erupt: Low, though magma activity beneath the caldera suggests ongoing geological processes. Scientists from the University of Cambridge have identified that its magma chamber has been slowly replenishing.
Taupō Volcanic Zone (New Zealand)
Size : The caldera lake spans 616 square kilometers.
: The caldera lake spans 616 square kilometers. Potential Damage and Power : The Oruanui eruption 26,500 years ago was the largest eruption in the last 70,000 years, ejecting around 1,170 cubic kilometers of material. Its effects were felt globally, with ash spreading across much of the Southern Hemisphere. An eruption today could devastate New Zealand and disrupt agriculture, air travel, and weather systems across the Pacific region.
Likelihood to Erupt: Medium. Taupō remains active, with eruptions as recently as 232 CE. Seismic activity is monitored closely by New Zealand’s GeoNet.
Recent vents and caldera structures Taupō Volcano. Present active geothermal systems are in light blue. A key to the vents is in the diagram. (CREDIT: ChaseKiwi/Wikimedia)
Aira Caldera (Japan)
Size : 20 kilometers in diameter
: 20 kilometers in diameter Potential Damage and Power : The Aira Caldera erupted 22,000 years ago, forming the current Kagoshima Bay. It is home to Sakurajima, one of the world’s most active volcanoes. Smaller eruptions occur frequently, but a supereruption could release vast amounts of magma and ash, severely affecting Japan and the surrounding region.
Likelihood to Erupt: Medium to high. Activity at Sakurajima suggests the magma chamber beneath Aira remains active and could eventually produce a catastrophic eruption.
During an overflight of Aira’s Sakurajima volcano on 16 March 2020, JMA captured this view to the SW of the Kitadake crater on the right, the steam-covered Minamidake crater in the center, and the smaller Showa crater on the left adjacent to Minamidake. (CREDIT: JMA and the Maritime Self-Defense Force 1st Air Group P-1)
Long Valley Caldera (United States)
Size : 32 kilometers by 18 kilometers
: 32 kilometers by 18 kilometers Potential Damage and Power : The caldera’s largest eruption occurred about 760,000 years ago, releasing 600 cubic kilometers of material and forming the Bishop Tuff. An eruption could devastate parts of California, with ashfall extending across North America, disrupting agriculture, infrastructure, and air travel.
Likelihood to Erupt: Low to medium. Long Valley shows signs of unrest, including ground uplift and geothermal activity. These signals suggest magma movement, though no immediate threat has been identified.
Long Valley Caldera California map. (CREDIT: CC BY-SA 4.0)
Campi Flegrei (Italy)
Size : 13 kilometers wide
: 13 kilometers wide Potential Damage and Power : Located near Naples, Campi Flegrei’s last major eruption 39,000 years ago produced 300 cubic kilometers of material and may have influenced Neanderthal extinction. An eruption today would threaten millions of people in the densely populated region and could disrupt the Mediterranean’s climate and economy.
Likelihood to Erupt: Medium. Recent studies show increased seismicity and ground deformation, indicating magma movement beneath the caldera.
A view of the Solfatara crater, part of the Campi Flegrei volcano in Pozzuoli. (CREDIT: KONTROLAB)
Siberian Traps (Russia)
Size : Spanning over 2 million square kilometers (as a flood basalt region)
: Spanning over 2 million square kilometers (as a flood basalt region) Potential Damage and Power : While technically not a supervolcano, the Siberian Traps are responsible for one of the most catastrophic volcanic events in history—the Permian-Triassic extinction event 252 million years ago. Massive eruptions released CO₂ and methane, triggering global warming, acid rain, and ocean acidification, wiping out 90% of marine species.
Likelihood to Erupt: Minimal. The Siberian Traps are no longer active but remain a critical study area for understanding large-scale volcanic impacts.
Overview map of the Siberian Traps with the whole Siberian Traps province. (CREDIT: Scientific Reports)
Laguna del Maule (Chile)
Size : 20 kilometers by 15 kilometers
: 20 kilometers by 15 kilometers Potential Damage and Power : Over the past few decades, this caldera has shown some of the highest rates of ground uplift ever recorded, suggesting significant magma accumulation. An eruption could release vast amounts of ash, impacting South America’s climate and agriculture.
Likelihood to Erupt: Medium. Laguna del Maule is under close surveillance due to its rapid ground deformation.
View southwest across Laguna del Maule, Chile, from near the summit of the vent for the Holocene rhyolite flows of Cari Launa at 3030 meters above sea level. (CREDIT: Brad Singer)
Key Insights on Risks and Likelihood
Most Powerful : Toba and Yellowstone are tied for their ability to produce global effects.
: Toba and Yellowstone are tied for their ability to produce global effects. Most Likely to Erupt : Aira Caldera (due to Sakurajima’s activity) and Taupō Volcanic Zone.
: Aira Caldera (due to Sakurajima’s activity) and Taupō Volcanic Zone. Most Hazardous to Populations: Campi Flegrei, given its proximity to densely populated Naples, and Aira Caldera near Kagoshima.
Supervolcanoes are among Earth’s most awe-inspiring and dangerous features. While the odds of a supereruption occurring in any given year are slim, the consequences demand vigilance, international collaboration, and further research to mitigate their risks.
The Geology Behind Supervolcanoes
Supervolcanoes form over hot spots or at subduction zones, where tectonic plates collide. These regions allow magma to accumulate in chambers deep within the Earth. Over tens of thousands to millions of years, pressure builds as magma interacts with surrounding rock, becoming more viscous and gas-rich.
David Pyle, a volcanologist at the University of Oxford, explains, “It’s the combination of high magma viscosity and gas content that makes supervolcanoes so explosive. When they erupt, it’s like uncorking a shaken bottle of champagne—on a planetary scale.”
Yellowstone is a focal point for supervolcano research. The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO), managed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), continuously monitors the region. Researchers employ a combination of seismographs, satellite imagery, and GPS sensors to track ground deformation, which can indicate magma movement.
In a recent study led by Dr. Michael Poland, YVO’s scientist-in-charge, researchers analyzed 20 years of data on Yellowstone’s ground uplift. The results, published in JGR Solid Earth, showed periodic inflation and deflation cycles, likely caused by magma and hydrothermal fluid migration.
Shaded relief map of Yellowstone National Park (outlined in solid black line) with seismicity in 2017 (open circles), roads (yellow lines), boundary of caldera that formed 631,000 years ago (dashed line), gravity stations occupied in 2017 (red circles), resurgent domes (labeled green ellipses), and continuous GNSS stations. (CREDIT: JGR Solid Earth)
“Yellowstone is dynamic but not currently eruptive,” Poland notes. “Our data suggests magma is replenishing, but at a pace far slower than would be necessary for an imminent eruption.”
At Toba, a team from the University of Cambridge used zircon crystals found in volcanic deposits to study magma accumulation. Dr. Clive Oppenheimer, a volcanologist on the team, explains, “Zircons are like time capsules. They tell us how long magma sits and evolves before an eruption. For Toba, it took thousands of years, which aligns with what we see at other supervolcanoes.”
Supervolcanoes don’t erupt often, but when they do, the results are catastrophic. An eruption like Yellowstone’s last major event, the Lava Creek eruption 640,000 years ago, would bury the western U.S. in meters of ash, destroy infrastructure, and make vast swaths of land uninhabitable.
Globally, the consequences would extend far beyond ashfall. Ash clouds would block sunlight, triggering a “volcanic winter.” Crops would fail, leading to food shortages. The cooling effect could last for years, disrupting weather patterns and ecosystems.
The Toba eruption offers a glimpse of these effects. Studies of ice cores and sediment suggest it caused a significant global temperature drop, potentially reducing human populations to as few as 10,000 individuals—a genetic bottleneck that shaped our evolution.
The Yellowstone Scenario
Yellowstone’s volcanic plumbing is a complex web of magma reservoirs, some partially molten and others solidified. Recent studies indicate the shallowest chamber is about 5–15% molten. While this doesn’t indicate an eruption is near, it underscores the potential for future activity. Jacob Lowenstern, a geologist formerly with YVO, emphasizes, “The goal isn’t to predict the next eruption but to understand the system well enough to reduce its risks.”
Locally, a Yellowstone eruption would obliterate everything within a 100-kilometer radius. Ashfall would extend thousands of kilometers, with the heaviest deposits in surrounding states like Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming.
Globally, the volcanic winter could lower temperatures by several degrees Celsius for a decade. Atmospheric scientist Alan Robock from Rutgers University simulated such scenarios in climate models. He warns, “The food supply chains we rely on are vulnerable. A volcanic winter could lead to widespread famine, even in regions far from the eruption.”
The Role of Science in Mitigating Risks
Advancements in technology are improving our ability to monitor supervolcanoes. AI is being used to analyze seismic data for early warning signs, while satellite imaging provides real-time views of ground deformation. Understanding these systems can also inform geothermal energy projects, such as harnessing Yellowstone’s vast heat for sustainable power.
Moreover, international collaborations are critical. The Global Volcanism Program compiles data from observatories worldwide, fostering a comprehensive approach to monitoring.
The study of supervolcanoes is not just about predicting the next eruption. It’s about understanding Earth’s dynamic processes and the interplay between geology, climate, and life. As Pyle notes, “Supervolcanoes remind us of our planet’s immense power and vulnerability. Their study is a humbling but essential endeavor.”
In the long term, research could help policymakers develop more robust disaster preparedness plans, from ash cleanup strategies to food security measures during prolonged global cooling.
Supervolcanoes are not mere relics of Earth’s past—they are active, evolving systems that demand our respect and vigilance.
Can Supervolcanoes Be Stopped?
While it’s clear supervolcanoes pose immense risks, the idea of preventing or mitigating an eruption has been a topic of increasing scientific interest. Though the concept might sound like science fiction, researchers are exploring ways to intervene in supervolcanic systems, aiming to reduce pressure in magma chambers or manage the thermal energy they produce. These efforts, while theoretical, represent a burgeoning area of study with promising implications.
Cooling the Magma Chamber
One of the most discussed approaches is reducing the heat in a supervolcano’s magma chamber. This concept is particularly relevant to Yellowstone, where researchers from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory proposed a plan to use water to cool the magma and lower the risk of eruption.
The proposal involves drilling deep into the supervolcano’s crust and injecting water, which would circulate, absorb heat, and return to the surface as steam. This geothermal system could slowly cool the magma chamber over tens of thousands of years, potentially delaying or even preventing an eruption.
Dr. Brian Wilcox, a former NASA engineer, explained the concept in an interview: “By cooling the magma chamber, we can reduce its energy. If we do this gradually, we could safely stabilize the system and even harness geothermal power as a byproduct.”
However, this approach is not without its risks. Drilling into a magma chamber carries the potential to destabilize the system, triggering the very eruption scientists aim to prevent. “The margin for error is extremely narrow,” warns Wilcox.
Pressure Management Through Venting
Another idea under exploration involves relieving pressure within the magma chamber by creating controlled vents. This approach, akin to letting steam escape from a pressure cooker, would involve drilling boreholes into the chamber to release gases and magma incrementally.
Dr. Christopher Kilburn, a volcanologist at University College London, emphasizes the challenges: “The concept of venting is scientifically plausible, but the logistics and safety concerns are staggering. The last thing we want is to accidentally trigger an eruption.”
Computational Modeling of Intervention
Advances in computational modeling are aiding the exploration of these ideas. Researchers use supercomputers to simulate the complex dynamics of magma chambers, helping to identify potential weak points and predict the effects of interventions.
A study published in Nature Communications by a team from ETH Zurich used these models to examine how cooling and venting might affect a magma chamber’s stability. Their findings suggest that interventions must be carefully calibrated to avoid catastrophic outcomes. “Our models show that even minor changes in pressure distribution can cause unexpected responses in the magma system,” said lead author Dr. Benoît Taisne.
Map of Stromboli volcano and mineralogical map of 2019 tephra. (CREDIT: Nature Communications)
Challenges and Ethical Considerations
The scientific community is divided on the feasibility of supervolcano intervention. Beyond the technical hurdles, there are ethical considerations to address. Intervening in a natural system as vast and complex as a supervolcano carries unforeseen risks, including the possibility of unintended environmental or seismic consequences.
“Should humanity even attempt to interfere with something as colossal as a supervolcano?” asks Dr. Pyle of the University of Oxford. “The risks of inaction are significant, but so are the risks of intervention.”
Efforts to develop supervolcano mitigation strategies require international collaboration. These volcanoes don’t adhere to borders, and their effects would be global. Establishing shared research platforms and funding opportunities is essential to advance the science while minimizing risks.
The U.N.’s Global Geoscience Initiative has identified supervolcanoes as a priority for its next decade of research funding, emphasizing the need for robust monitoring systems and experimental mitigation studies.
Mitigating supervolcanoes isn’t just about preventing rare but catastrophic eruptions. It’s about harnessing knowledge to better understand Earth’s processes and applying that knowledge to protect humanity. Whether these approaches will ever be viable remains uncertain, but each study adds another layer to our understanding of these hidden giants.
Dr. Poland of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory summarizes it well: “Our goal is not to play God but to learn enough about these systems to coexist with them safely. If we can mitigate the risks while benefiting from geothermal energy, that’s a win for humanity.”
Supervolcanoes remain a reminder of Earth’s incredible power. Efforts to manage their potential will demand caution, ingenuity, and a global commitment to science.
Note: Materials provided above by The Brighter Side of News. Content may be edited for style and length.
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